After steadily rising from April, gasoline exports from Northwest Europe to West Africa are set to come in lower in November, the first such decline in monthly exports since the start of the pandemic.

An estimated 10.62 million barrels of gasoline will be delivered to West Africa, representing a 31% decline on the month, according to data intelligence company Kpler.

A lack of operational local refining capacity in the region has helped sustain buying interest in surplus gasoline volumes from refiners in Northwest Europe.

While sources have said that demand for road fuels in key West African countries remains buoyant, a spike in freight rates could have dampened arbitrage exports from Europe to West African countries.

“The surge in medium-range tanker freight rates might have hurt us for West African trade,” a source said.

S&P Global Platts assessed the UKC-West Africa freight rate, basis 37,000 mt, at Worldscale 100 on Nov. 25, up 15 points on the week. Freight rates for the route had fallen to a record low of w72.5 at the start of November.

Outright prices in European gasoline markets have rallied over the past week on the back of strong crude oil gains and favorable vaccine news, potentially deterring buyers.

The Eurobob FOB AR barge was assessed 9.5% higher on the week at $406.75/mt on Nov. 25, while the premium unleaded 10 ppm FOB AR barge gained 9% in value to be assessed at $409/mt. The rally this week saw gasoline barge markets pass the $400/mt mark for the first time since late September.

Despite the recent gains in the prompt market, a steeply contangoed forward gasoline paper market in Europe has seen more interest in floating storage inquiries for the Lome region, off the coast of West Africa. Shippers may store gasoline volumes offshore, awaiting higher prices in December and January.

Two 60,000 mt vessels were heard fixed for floating storage in the Lome region on Nov. 26, while another vessel was heard put on subjects for $15,000/day for a period of 30-90 days.