Bunker fuel demand is forecast to fall 5% this year, far less than other fuels, with some sectors such as oil and chemicals showing no change in bunker fuel demand despite the coronavirus pandemic, said the International Energy Agency Thursday.

"The data that has emerged so far points to a much less significant decline in deliveries than for other transport fuels," said the IEA, noting that first quarter bunker fuel volumes in Singapore, the world’s biggest bunker hub, rose 5% from a year earlier despite the slowdown in China due to COVID-19. In Rotterdam, deliveries climbed 3% over the same period, it noted.

Bunker fuel sales in April were 10.8% higher than a year earlier, showed data from the Singapore Maritime and Port Authority Wednesday.

Ships for oil and chemicals, which take up 21% of bunker demand, are forecast to show no change in bunker fuel demand through the rest of this year, said the IEA. Dry bulk, with a 29% share, will show a 2% drop in the second and third quarters, and no change in the fourth quarter. Container ships, with a 14% share, will show a 12% decline in Q2, 8% drop in Q3, and 4% in Q4. The cruise sector, with a 6% share, will be hit the most, with demand falling 90% in Q2, 83% in Q3, and 60% in Q4.

The aviation sector, on the other hand, will be hurt this year and beyond, said the IEA. Demand for jet fuel and kerosene is seen falling 1.7 million b/d in July through December, compared with year earlier periods, or an average of 120,000 b/d lower than the IEA's forecast last month, it said. Gasoline demand is expected to decrease by 550,000 b/d per month from a year earlier, and combined diesel and gasoil demand by 150,000 b/d, said the IEA.